Bitcoin Knots · Solo · Self-hosted
| Estimate | Value |
|---|---|
| Chance per day | 0.0000126586% |
| Chance per year | 0.00462028% |
| Expected time to find a block | ~7899767.75 days |
| Expected time in years | ~21643.20 years |
| Blocks found to date | 0 |
Figures assume the current 5 minute hashrate holds and network difficulty stays put. Both assumptions are wrong over any real time horizon, so treat these as illustration rather than forecast.
| Step | Formula |
|---|---|
| Expected blocks per day | hashrate × 86400 ÷ (difficulty × 2^32) |
| Chance in a period | 1 − e^(−blocks per period) |
| Best share ratio | best share ÷ difficulty × 100 |
Mining is memoryless. A near miss brings you no closer to the next block than a cold start does.